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FP&A · Budget control

Actual vs budget

Monthly budget control for Northwind Shipping (fictional), an 8-vessel fleet of tankers, bulk carriers and offshore supply vessels. Actuals are closed through Sep 2026. All names and figures are synthetic; the structure mirrors a real budget-control model I ran in shipping.

Three linked statements for 2026 (Jan–Sep actual, Oct–Dec forecast) and a 13-week cash forecast. Move the levers: the forecast months, the statements, the simulations and the briefing recalculate in your browser.

Scenario levers · Oct–Dec

FY EBITDA

USD 9.3M

actual + forecast

Lowest cash

USD 8.4M

1 Oct · +2.4M vs minimum

Cash at 31 Dec

USD 9.2M

simulating…

Chance of breaching

…

the minimum, 1000 simulations

13-week cash · weekly close, intraweek low and the 5–95% simulation band

6.4M8.3M10.3M12.3M7 Oct14 Oct21 Oct28 Oct4 Nov11 Nov18 Nov25 Nov2 Dec9 Dec16 Dec23 Dec31 DecMinimum cash 6.0M
Week to7 Oct14 Oct21 Oct28 Oct4 Nov11 Nov18 Nov25 Nov2 Dec9 Dec16 Dec23 Dec31 Dec
Receipts1,598–1,598–1,679–1,679–1,734–1,734––
Payments−286−286−390−1,446−466−285−285−1,408−466−287−287−287−3,169
Closing cash9,7959,51010,7189,27210,48510,20011,59510,18711,45411,16812,61512,3289,159

USD thousands. Hire is received on the 1st and 16th, payroll on the 25th, interest and debt repayments at month end.

CFO briefing · rewritten from the numbers on every change

  • ▸Running the simulations…

Three statements · linked month by month

USD thousandsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct FNov FDec FFY
Net income12789−208−1098961145167−139142108139611
Depreciation5015015015015015015015015015015015016,012
Drydock provision less spend178178−1,272178178178178178−972178178178−464
Change in receivables68−76412−257−106−3−74−42335−2754−4−20
Change in payables−520994−9314−12111−48−540
Change in tax payable−60830–−723020−256–−573646−520
Operating cash flow261742−558335598772737871−2754858358565,659
Debt repayment––−1,500––−1,500––−1,500––−1,500−6,000
Net cash flow261742−2,058335598−728737871−1,775485835−644−341
Closing cash9,76110,5028,4448,7799,3778,6509,38710,2588,4838,9689,8029,1599,159

Receivables follow revenue at the collection period, payables follow supplier costs at 30 days, tax is paid quarterly, drydocks are provisioned monthly and paid when they happen, and the loan amortises USD 1.5M a quarter. The simulations draw charter rates by segment (σ 8%), off-hire (including rare long breakdowns), costs (σ 3%) and collections.

Synthetic data for a fictional company, for illustration only.